Lagatar24 Desk
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall across parts of northwest, east, and northeast India over the next 4-5 days. This comes amid an overall 4% deficiency in monsoon rainfall across the country.
The monsoon trough is currently near its normal position at mean sea level, with a cyclonic circulation over southeast Pakistan and a trough extending from southeast Pakistan to Bangladesh at lower tropospheric levels. These conditions are expected to bring widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, over northwest and central India during the next five days.
While many regions are experiencing rainfall, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are enduring extremely high temperatures, with Kashmir particularly affected by heatwave conditions. Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of 35.6°C on Wednesday, which is 6 degrees above normal.
“It’s still very hot in Kashmir and Ladakh where heat wave still persists as day temperatures are above normal by 5 to 6°C. In the otherwise cold desert of Ladakh, maximum touched 31.9°C in Leh and 33°C in Kargil,” said Sonam Lotus, a scientist with IMD Leh. He expressed hope that monsoon rains expected from Friday would bring relief.
The IMD reported a 4% deficiency in monsoon rain across the country, with a 21% deficiency over northwest India, a 3% deficiency over east and northeast India, and a 12% excess over central India. Since June 1, Jammu and Kashmir has experienced a 30% rainfall deficiency.
The IMD’s forecast includes isolated heavy rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on June 5 and 6; Himachal Pradesh on June 6 and 7; Uttarakhand on June 8; Punjab on June 6 and 7; Haryana and Chandigarh until June 6; Uttar Pradesh until June 8; and East Rajasthan on June 5 and 6. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Jammu and Himachal Pradesh on June 5; Uttarakhand until June 7; Punjab on June 5; and Uttar Pradesh on June 5 and 6.
A cyclonic circulation over northeast Rajasthan and a trough from northeast Rajasthan to Bangladesh, along with another cyclonic circulation over west Jharkhand at lower and middle tropospheric levels, are expected to bring widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, over east and northeast India during the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar, and the northeastern states during this period.
“The monsoon trough is oscillating. It’s now near its normal position but we expect that it will shift to the north of Delhi again. So, Delhi may see patchy rain. There is likely to be heavy rain mostly over north Rajasthan, north Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, but the Jammu and Kashmir region again may not get as much rain,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
