Just like the word “pandemic”, the term “endemic” is also being used now by scientists and health experts in relation to Covid-19. However, the term doesn’t have a single agreed definition yet.
Determined to escape the crisis and avoid more restrictions, some European countries such as Spain have started making tentative plans for when they might start treating Covid-19 as an endemic disease, like seasonal flu. But, World Health Organization (WHO) experts and other officials say that’s premature with a warning that the world is nowhere close to declaring the pandemic as over.
Here’s a look at what endemic means and the implications for the future, according to India Today.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR A DISEASE TO BECOME ENDEMIC UNLIKE PANDEMIC?
In an epidemic, a disease occurs regularly and spreads rapidly in certain areas according to established patterns, but it becomes a pandemic when it spreads globally, causing unpredictable waves of illness over a very wide area.
According to Catherine Smallwood, an infectious diseases expert at WHO’s European headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark, the agency has said that redefining coronavirus as an endemic disease is still “a ways off,”
“We still have a huge amount of uncertainty and a virus that is evolving quickly,” she had said earlier this month.
For most countries, designating a disease as endemic means that fewer resources will be available to fight it, since it will likely no longer be considered a public health emergency.
WHO WILL DECIDE WHEN COVID-19 IS ENDEMIC?
Most wealthy countries are likely to start considering Covid-19 as endemic depending on how the virus is spreading within their borders, in addition to the possibility of new cases causing big outbreaks. The wide availability of Covid-19 vaccines, medicines and other measures in rich countries will to an extent help them curb outbreaks long before the virus is brought under control globally.
While the WHO does not technically declare pandemics, its highest alert level is a global health emergency, and Covid-19 has warranted that distinction since January 2020. An expert committee formed by the UN health agency meets every three months since then to reassess the situation.
Even though WHO experts have declared that Covid-19 no longer qualifies as a global emergency, it is likely that the pandemic will be over. However, the criteria for that decision are not precisely defined.
“It’s somewhat a subjective judgment because it’s not just about the number of cases. It’s about severity and it’s about impact,” Dr. Michael Ryan, the WHO’s emergencies chief, was quoted as saying by The Associated Press.
Others have argued that designating Covid-19 as endemic is arguably a political question rather than a scientific one, and it speaks to how much disease and death national authorities and their citizens are willing to tolerate.
WHAT IS SPAIN PROPOSING?
Last week, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had said that falling death rates due to Covid-19 suggest that it’s time for European officials to start thinking about whether the disease should be considered endemic. This would mean that Spanish officials would not be required to record every Covid-19 positive case and that people with symptoms would not necessarily be tested, but they would continue to be treated if they are sick.
Though the proposal has been discussed with some EU officials, no concrete decisions have been made.
In October last year, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control issued an advisory on how countries might transition to more routine surveillance of Covid-19 after the acute phase of the pandemic.
“Countries should integrate their monitoring of coronavirus with other diseases like flu and test a representative sample of Covid-19 cases, rather than attempting to test every person with symptoms,” the agency had said amongst a few of its recommendations.
WOULD ENDEMIC MEAN THAT PROBLEM IS OVER?
Endemic would not mean the problem is over– the reason being that many serious diseases, including tuberculosis and HIV, are considered endemic in parts of the world and continue to kill hundreds of thousands of people every year.
For instance, Malaria is considered endemic in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa and is estimated to cause more than 200 million cases every year, including about 600,000 deaths.
“Endemic in itself does not mean good,” Ryan said, adding that “Endemic just means it’s here forever.”
Health officials warn that even after Covid-19 becomes an established respiratory virus like seasonal flu, the virus will continue to prove fatal for some.
According to Dr. Chris Woods, an infectious disease expert at Duke University, said even after the pandemic ends, “Covid will still be with us.”
“The difference is people won’t be dying indiscriminately because of it, and it will be so routine that we will have much better and fairer access to vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics for all,” he added.