MANISH GUPTA
Ranchi, Nov 30: As the saying goes ‘proof is in the pudding’, the states that have least poverty, higher incomes and great outlooks are the ones that can broadly claim to have figured out the best growth model for themselves, which others can take a cue from.
Lagatar24.com did an analysis of various reports from bodies like the Ministry of Statistics, Ministry of Commerce, Reserve Bank of India, Niti Aayog and National Crime Records Bureau to study the major states, excluding northeast, union territories, city and hill states.
Poverty, understood not only based on income but in all its dimensions encompassing health, education and standard of living, is measured by the Niti Aayog in its reports – National Multidimensional Poverty Index. The last was released in November 2021.
States with less than 20% multidimensional poverty are Kerala (0.71%), Tamil Nadu (4.89%), Punjab (5.59%), Haryana (12.28%), Andhra Pradesh (12.31%), Karnataka (13.16%), Telangana (13.74%), Maharashtra (14.85%) and Gujarat (18.60%).
At this level of screening through the most crucial filter of poverty and inequality, which high overall incomes can mask, the clear winners are Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab in that order. However, consideration of prosperity and rate of future growth is must.
As per the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Haryana, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are the only major states with per capita income (net states domestic product at current prices for 2019-20) above Rs 2 lakh per annum. Maximum per capita income is Rs 2.48 lakh in Haryana.
States that have witnessed more than 150% economic growth between 2011-12 and 2019-20 are Madhya Pradesh (197%), Karnataka (169%), Telangana (166%), Gujarat (165%), Haryana (162%) and Andhra Pradesh (156%), according to the MoSPI.
While the per capita income and GSDP growth trend for Gujarat are promising, the high multidimensional poverty of about 19% makes long term growth unsustainable unless the state focuses on inclusive growth. Maharashtra, with nearly 15% multidimensional poverty, witnessed a much slower economic growth of 120% in the eight year period.
Considering the current level of prosperity among the population and economic growth trajectories taken till date, the front runners are the five southern states of Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and northern state of Haryana.
However, among five southern states and Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab and Haryana, which are relatively doing better than others, rate of violent crimes (crime incidence per one lakh population) is lowest for Gujarat (11.9), followed by Andhra Pradesh (13.7) and Tamil Nadu (16.2), as per NCRB’s Crime in India 2021 report.
An important indicator of quality of life in a state is rate of suicides (number of suicides per lakh population). On this, while Bihar comes at the lowest at 0.7, the states under consideration are in this order – Punjab (8.1), Gujarat (12), Andhra Pradesh (12.5), Haryana (13.7), Maharashtra (17.6), Karnataka (18.9), Telangana (24.7), Tamil Nadu (26.4) and Kerala (26.9), as per NCRB’s Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India 2021.
While Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may provide a safer environment for business than other states under consideration, the states that were adjudged as top achievers in Ease of Doing Business by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry last June are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Telangana.
In July, the ministry came out with a ranking of states on support to start-up ecosystems and declared Gujarat and Karnataka as the best performers.
However, more importantly the credit-deposit ratio (five year moving average), as per RBI’s Handbook of Statistics on Indian States, 2021-22, scheduled commercial banks in three states that advanced loans more than their deposits in the past five financial years are Andhra Pradesh (129.04), Telangana (108.28) and Tamil Nadu (107.82).
Besides, the top three states with highest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflow in 2021-22 are Karnataka ($22.1 bn), Maharashtra ($15.4 bn) and Tamil Nadu ($3 bn).
In a nutshell, while Kerala, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh have managed a sustainable and equitable growth, Karnataka, Telangana and Haryana have done well in building a high growth economy with promising outlook.
It’s Tamil Nadu that stands out on both fronts – sustainable and fast-paced growth. The state has the highest number of factories in the country at 38,837 and it has the second largest percentage of population (13.41%) working in the small and medium enterprises.
