Lagatar24 Desk
New Delhi: The southwest monsoon officially arrived in Kerala on Saturday, marking the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This year’s early onset on May 18 comes nearly two weeks ahead of the normal monsoon schedule, which typically begins around June 1.
Historical trends and early arrival
The last time the monsoon reached this early was on May 23, 2009. In comparison, the monsoon had arrived on May 30 in 2023, June 8 in 2022, May 29 in 2021, and June 3 in 2020, according to IMD records. Despite the excitement surrounding early rainfall, meteorologists warn against drawing conclusions about seasonal trends based on onset dates.
Onset timing doesn’t predict rainfall volume
“There is no direct correlation between the date of monsoon onset over Kerala and the total rainfall received during the season across India,” an IMD official clarified. While early arrival may raise hopes, monsoon progression is influenced by a range of global, regional, and local climatic factors.
Favorable outlook for 2025 season
In its April forecast, the IMD predicted an above-normal monsoon for 2025, easing fears of an El Niño effect that usually leads to below-average rainfall in India. The department also indicated that current atmospheric and oceanic conditions do not support El Niño development this season.
