SUMAN K SHRIVASTAVA
Ranchi, July 7: Both the BJP as well as the AJSU is bracing up to contest the assembly byelection in Dumri, a seat that has fallen vacant due to death of Education Minister Jagarnath Mahto on April 6 last.
Though the BJP is yet to take a call on it, the AJSU, according to sources, has already started preparations and ready to stake its claim to the seat even as the Election Commission is yet to announce by-elections there. A couple of days back, AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto was in Dumri to supervise the party’s preparations for the bypoll.
AJSU candidate Yashoda Devi, who ended the runners-up, had polled over 800 votes more than what BJP nominee Pradeep Sahu had garnered in 2019. Late Jagarnath Mahto had defeated the AJSU with a margin of over 34,000 votes.
The combined vote share of the AJSU and the BJP in the 2019 assembly elections was 72,853 compared to 71,128 votes polled by the JMM. So, the arithmetic favours the NDA nominee. The AJSU’s success in Ramgarh bypoll, where it along with the BJP put up a joint show, has boosted up its morale.
The BJP’s record in the assembly by-elections in Jharkhand since 2019 has not been good. Of the five by-elections the NDA had to face defeat everywhere except Ramgarh. The BJP also lost the politically important sub-capital Dumka seat vacated by Chief Minister Hemant Soren. The BJP was also defeated in Madhupur, Bermo, Mandar etc.
Says AJSU central secretary Baijnath Mahto: “the JMM had won the seat as both the AJSU and the BJP fought separately. Besides, the victory also depends on the social and political profile of a candidate.”
“The irony is that Dumri had never been represented by a son of Dumri in the last 50 years. For example, Shiva Mahto, who represented it for 15 years was from Sijua, Similarly, Lalchand Mahto, who represented it for another 15 years, happens to be from Bermo. Jagarnath Mahto, though worked in Dumri, was from Bhandaridah village. So, Dumri voters have not seen one of their sons to be their MLAs in the last 50 years,” Mahto, who was recently felicitated by the Governor for progressive farming, said.
“Also, these leaders never nurtured cadres to be their successors and always thought for their family. Had it not been so, the JMM would not have handpicked Jagarnath Mahto’s widow Baby Devi to claim his legacy,” he maintained.
On the other hand, the ruling JMM, whose prestige is at stake, expects to ride on the sympathy votes in favour of Baby Devi, whose husband Jagarnath had won from Dumri for the last four times. Baby Devi was sworn in as a minister a couple of days back.
JMM Giridih district president Sanjay Singh counted the contribution of late Jagarnath Mahto to the development of the Dumri constituency. “Jagarnath Mahto happened to be a very popular leader and always maintained one to one contact with the electorates. So, besides the social equation, the people will also keep in view his development report card, if the JMM decides to field Baby Devi or his son in the bypolls,” he maintained.
Incidentally, the BJP leaders are tight-lipped on the issue.
A senior BJP leader, however, said that the party should decide to field former Chief Minister Raghubar Das from Dumri as the constituency has a good number of Vaishya votes. “The BJP had fielded Pradeep Sahu, a Vaishya, in the 2019 elections keeping this social equation in view,” he added.
“Besides, the BJP could also be able to convince the AJSU if it fields a heavyweight and neutralise the JMM’s sympathy votes,” he pointed out requesting anonymity.
Crucial battle ahead of 2024 LS polls
If the result of Dumri by-election goes in favour of the NDA, then definitely the atmosphere will be in favour of the NDA for 2024. On the other, if the result goes in favour of the JMM, then it is natural to increase psychological pressure on the NDA (BJP) in Jharkhand.
Social equation
If we look at the social equation in the elections in this area, the dominance of the Mahto caste has been seen in the last ten elections. Be it any party, the MLAs have come from the Mahto community, Besides, Vaishya, Muslim (AIMIM candidate Abdul Mobin Rizvi had got over 24,000 votes in 2019) and tribals too have strong vote banks in Dumri. Giridih’s AJSU MP Chandraprakash Chaudhary is from Mahto caste only.
