Lagatar24 Desk
New Delhi, April 11: The centre announced today that India will have normal monsoon rainfall patterns this year. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a 67-per cent probability of normal to above-normal rainfall.
“India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said.
For the agricultural industry, which primarily depends on monsoon rains for crop production, the official projection is a relief. Due to the conclusion of the La Nina conditions and the chance for El Nino to take hold, Skymet, a private meteorological organization, forecasted on Monday that this year’s monsoon rain will be below average.
However, according to the meteorological service, there is no “one-to-one” correlation between El Nino and India’s monsoon rains. According to the IMD, “all El Nino years are not bad monsoon years.”
“If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of a positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere,” said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
Senior meteorologists predicted that during the southwest monsoon season, favourable IOD conditions will likely emerge. El Nino describes a warming of the Pacific Ocean waters close to South America. It is related to the Indian monsoon winds diminishing.
The difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern portions of the Indian Ocean, close to Africa and Indonesia, is used to define the IOD.
The meteorological service predicted earlier this month that many regions of the nation, with the exception of some areas in the northwest and peninsular region, would see above-average maximum temperatures from April through June.
According to the IMD, India saw the warmest February since records have been kept began in 1901 in 2023. However, March’s temperatures were moderated by above-average rainfall brought in by seven western disturbances, including five powerful ones.
